Guide Me Home to North Jersey

Over the past year there has been no shortage of commentary on the state of America’s faltering housing market. Thankfully, in recent months the good news seems to be outweighing the bad. In Bernards Township, however, which includes the villages of Liberty Corner and Basking Ridge, real estate sales have actually been on the rise.

In the above chart the pink line represents contract sales by quarter for 2009, and so far sales in Basking Ridge are running about 8.5% above 2008, year to date. What is it about this town that allows its real estate market to flourish while other’s founder? There are likely several answers to that question, including its perennially outstanding schools, excellent proximity to both routes 287 and 78, train access to Manhattan, a diverse selection of housing options from revolutionary-era Colonials to condominiums in The Hills, and a vibrant and charming downtown area in Basking Ridge.

Perhaps the most critical factor to the town’s continued stability is the relative affordability of the homes. The average sale price in the 3rd quarter, 2009, was $600,000. Down 11% from the 3rd quarter 2008, it looks like a deal compared with neighboring towns (next door, Bernardsville’s average YTD sale price is $940,000).

Sale Prices (in thousands) by Quarter

While Bernards Township has bucked the trend as far as sales activity, it has not escaped the depreciation that is prevalent throughout the nation’s real estate market. Year to date sale prices are down approximately 13% over the same period last year. While this is certainly a significant decrease, all of the wonderful attributes of this town have saved it from the far greater depreciation seen in so many towns.

Posted by: John Turpin

Here in the Somerset Hills (which for the purposes of this article we will very loosely define as Bedminster, Bernardsville, Far Hills, Bernards Twp, Tewksbury, the Chesters the Mendhams and Harding Twp) the real estate market has certainly picked up. While we have become accustomed to experiencing a spring market as early as January or February in recent years, it wasn’t until April of 2009 that we began to see an increase in contract activity. The improvement in the real estate market between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2009 is striking and includes a number of other encouraging signs too.

Most notably, contract sales in the 2nd quarter of this year have almost doubled from the 1st Quarter. In Q1 there were a total of 167 sales, as compared with 321 in Q2. Lest we attribute the increase simply to a seasonal pattern, in 2008 there were 209 sales in Q1 and 307 in Q2, and in 2007 the numbers were 316 and 405 respectively. So while we are accustomed to seeing an increase in contract activity between the 1st and 2nd quarters, this year’s increase has been significantly more dramatic. Before you break out the champagne, keep in mind that transactions YTD are still running approximately 6% below our 2008 numbers and almost 50% below 2007.

In several other areas the performance of our real estate market also improved, including average sales price, days on market and sale price to list price ratio. Average sales price went from $568,184 in Q1 to $687,778 in Q2. Average days on market for homes that have closed declined from 101 days to 96, while the percentage of final list price achieved went from 92% to 93.4%. While these changes are small, they do reflect a positive trend in the market.

This good news is a welcome reprieve from the slide we have been experiencing for years in the New Jersey real estate market, but it is important to keep in mind that with inventory levels still so high, it may be many more months before we hit bottom and prices begin to stabilize. The good news is that for now it looks like we are headed in the right direction.

Posted by: John Turpin

Oldwick Office
4 Joliet Street, P.O. Box 13
Oldwick, NJ 08858

Phone: 908-439-3300 ext 30
Email: jdturpin@turpinrealtors.com

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John represents the third generation of residential brokers in the Turpin family. Proud of his family heritage, his understanding of real estate began as a child when he listened to business conversations between his father and grandmother. John is the son of Jack Turpin, the company's president, and grandson of Virginia Turpin, the company's founder. Both Jack and Virginia supplied John with inestimable advice about real estate and life in general. As a lifelong resident of the Somerset Hills who attended high school at Morristown-Beard School, John is uniquely qualified to assist natives and newcomers alike.

After graduating from The University of Colorado with a Bachelor of Arts degree, John managed a small clothing manufacturer in Boulder. In that position he learned a great deal about effective communication, how to actively negotiate and the importance of customer satisfaction. This experience proved to be an outstanding foundation for a career in home sales. Shortly after coming back East, John joined the Mendham office, where he quickly demonstrated a flair for marketing homes in all price ranges.

Since 2005, John has been managing the Oldwick office of Turpin Real Estate, as well as the marketing department and several of the day-to-day operations that come with being a part of the family business. His characteristic good judgment, expertise and insight are key assets to the company as it continues to be an influential presence in the area.

Not surprisingly, family is very important to John, and when he’s not working he enjoys spending time with his wife and two young daughters. After college John made his living playing music and enjoyed some success in that industry, including appearances at the prestigious Telluride Bluegrass Festival. Today music is an important outlet for him, and he enjoys playing guitar and mandolin with friends and family whenever possible. John also serves as the vice president of the board at the Somerset Lake and Game Club.

John's commitment to the overall success of Turpin Real Estate is genuine; he supports fellow sales associates with their individual goals, and takes the time to recognize the importance of each individual achievement. Clients and co-workers appreciate the hands-on professional style John employs, knowing they can rely on him for straightforward advice about the market.